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Global: EV battery market forecasts vary widely- report

Global: EV battery market forecasts vary widely- report

With battery-powered electric and range-extended plug-in hybrid vehicles only at the point of beginning to become available, forecasts for the automotive propulsion battery market are difficult to make, as is illustrated by several forecasts summarised in the latest AutomotiveWorld.comreport, 'The electric vehicle battery report'.
The report reviews the factors that are stimulating the battery market, which is dependent on the growth of the electric and hybrid vehicle markets. It also examines the many barriers that must be addressed, reviews current battery technologies and summarises the many and varied market forecasts for all types of battery-powered vehicles through to 2015 and beyond.
With respect to automotive propulsion battery market forecasts, prediction range widely. Advanced Automotive Batteries, for example, has forecast the 2015 market for hybrid vehicle batteries at US$2.3bn, with lithium-ion batteries accounting for US$1.6bn. However, Pike Research and Saft both estimate the lithium-ion battery market by then at between US$5bn to US$10bn while Fraunhofer Magazine places it higher still.
Some of the wide variation is due to the difficulties that analysts face when trying to predict the future markets for vehicles that will use battery propulsion. Compounding the difficulty further is that some forecasts are influenced by the battery production capacity currently planned by OEMs and suppliers. While demand for batteries could well exceed supply in the near term, the rush to build capacity is expected by some analysts, including Lux Research, to result in overcapacity by as much as three times the demand by 2015 if all current planned investment proceeds.